Papers & Publications

42 publications spanning 1989–2023

Showing 42 of 42
  1. 2023
    Supercell tornado lead time and low-level lapse rates

    Rejected by one reviewer but contains good material using a sizable dataset showing how lapse rates in low levels often impact tornadic supercells.

    Davies, J. M.

    Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology (submitted, rejected)

    tornadoessupercellslapse-rateslead-time
    ↓
  2. 2020
    Tornado forecasting class notes — ChaserCon 2020

    Notes from a tornado forecasting class taught at ChaserCon 2020. Helpful to beginners and as a refresher for forecasters and storm chasers with some experience.

    Davies, J.

    ChaserCon 2020

    tornadoesforecasting
    ↓
  3. 2019
    Tornado forecasting class notes — ChaserCon 2019

    Notes from a tornado forecasting class taught at ChaserCon 2019. Helpful to beginners and as a refresher for forecasters and storm chasers with some experience.

    Davies, J.

    ChaserCon 2019

    tornadoesforecasting
    ↓
  4. 2019
    Tornadic mesocyclone interactions and a storm tour accident: The Lawrence-Linwood, Kansas high-precipitation supercell of 28 May 2019

    Rejected as possibly too controversial, but contains good material for spotters and chasers about high-precipitation supercells and where tornadoes may be hidden within the storm structure and rain.

    Davies, J. M.

    Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology (submitted, rejected)

    tornadoessupercellshigh-precipitationKansas
    ↓
  5. 2017
    Meteorological setting for a catastrophic event: The deadly Joplin tornado of 22 May 2011

    The only known paper examining the meteorological setting and environment for the historically deadly Joplin tornado event.

    Davies, J. M.

    Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 12 (3), 1-23

    tornadoesJoplinenvironment
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  6. 2011
    Tornado forecasting class notes — ChaserCon 2011-2012

    Notes from a tornado forecasting class taught at ChaserCon 2011-2012. Helpful to beginners and as a refresher for forecasters and storm chasers with some experience.

    Davies, J.

    ChaserCon 2011-2012

    tornadoesforecasting
    ↓
  7. 2009
    Environmental characteristics associated with nighttime tornadoes

    Uses a large dataset to show how nighttime tornado settings often differ from daytime settings.

    Davies, J. M., and A. Fischer

    NWA Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, 2009-EJ3

    tornadoesnighttimeforecasting
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  8. 2009
    Significant nighttime tornadoes in the plains associated with relatively stable low-level conditions

    Fischer, A., and J. M. Davies

    NWA Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, 2009-EJ4

    tornadoesnighttimeforecasting
    ↗
  9. 2008
    Three strong tornado events in 2008 associated with boundary intersections and narrow instability axes near 700-mb lows

    Dovetails with other work about tornadoes associated with cold-core mid-level lows.

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper P3.14

    cold-coretornadoesboundaries
    ↓
  10. 2007
    The North Dakota tornadic supercells of 18 July 2004: issues concerning high LCL heights and evapotranspiration

    Kellenbenz, D. J., T. J. Grafenauer, and J. M. Davies

    Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1200-1213

    supercellsLCLtornadoes
    ↗
  11. 2007
    Storm Chasers! On the Trail of Twisters

    A full-color book for middle school and late grade school readers about tornadoes and storm chasing, with up-to-date information at the time of publication.

    Davies, J.

    Farcountry Publishing, Helena, Montana

    tornadoesstorm-chasing
    ↗
  12. 2006
    Tornadoes with cold core 500-mb lows

    Seminal peer-reviewed study about tornadoes associated with cold-core mid-level lows.

    Davies, J. M.

    Weather and Forecasting, 21, 1051-1062

    cold-coretornadoes
    ↗
  13. 2006
    Photographs and analysis of an unusually large and long-lived firewhirl

    Umscheid, M. E., J. P. Monteverdi, and J. M. Davies

    Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, vol. 1, no. 2

    firewhirl
    ↗
  14. 2006
    Hurricane and tropical cyclone tornado environments from RUC proximity soundings

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper P8.1

    tornadoeshurricanestropicalsoundings
    ↓
  15. 2006
    RUC soundings with cool season tornadoes in small CAPE settings and the 6 November 2005 Evansville, Indiana tornado

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 4.3

    CAPEtornadoessoundings
    ↓
  16. 2006
    Tornadoes in environments with small helicity and/or high LCL heights

    Davies, J. M.

    Weather and Forecasting, 21, 579-594

    helicityLCLtornadoes
    ↗
  17. 2006
    Total CAPE, low-level CAPE, and LFC in significant tornado events with relatively high LCL heights

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper P1.3

    CAPELCLLFCtornadoes
    ↓
  18. 2005
    Tornadoes in non-mesocyclone environments with pre-existing vertical vorticity along convergence boundaries

    A study about a common setting for landspout tornadoes and hybrid tornadoes combining non-mesocyclone and mesocyclone processes.

    Caruso, J. M., and J. M. Davies

    NWA Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, June 2005

    tornadoeslandspoutsconvergence
    ↗
  19. 2004
    A preliminary climatology of tornado events with closed cold core 500 mb lows in the central and eastern United States

    Good companion to other work about tornadoes associated with cold-core mid-level lows.

    Davies, J. M., and J. L. Guyer

    Preprints CD, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 7B.4

    cold-coretornadoesclimatology
    ↓
  20. 2004
    Tornadoes in a deceptively small CAPE environment: The 20 April 2004 outbreak in Illinois and Indiana

    Pietrycha, A. E., J. M. Davies, M. Ratzer, and P. Merzlock

    Preprints CD, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper P1.3

    CAPEtornadoes
    ↓
  21. 2004
    Estimations of CIN and LFC associated with tornadic and nontornadic supercells

    A study about how convective inhibition (CIN) is a limiting factor for tornadoes in settings where supercells form within areas having sizable CIN.

    Davies, J. M.

    Weather and Forecasting, 19, 714-726

    CINLFCsupercellstornadoes
    ↗
  22. 2002
    Mesoscale environment factors in the D.C. area tornado event of 24 September 2001

    Davies, J. M., and J. A. Hart

    Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 551-554

    tornadoesmesoscaleenvironment
    ↓
  23. 2002
    The 29 May 2001 Lamar, Colorado tornadic event

    Hodanish, S., and J. Davies

    Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 575-578

    tornadoesboundariesColorado
    ↓
  24. 2002
    On low-level thermodynamic parameters associated with tornadic and non-tornadic supercells

    A good study about 0-3 km CAPE and low-level CAPE associated with tornadic supercell storms.

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 603-606

    CAPEsupercellstornadoesthermodynamics
    ↓
  25. 2002
    Significant tornadoes in environments with relatively weak shear

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 651-654

    wind-sheartornadoes
    ↓
  26. 1998
    On supercell motion in weaker wind environments

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 685-688

    supercellswind-shear
    ↓
  27. 1996
    Deep layer shear as a refinement to CAPE and low-level shear in tornado forecasting

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 698-702

    CAPEwind-sheartornadoesforecasting
    ↓
  28. 1995
    A look at the energy-helicity index

    Informal article discussing the energy-helicity index in layman terms relating to forecasting tornadoes.

    Davies, J.

    Storm Track, May 1995

    helicityEHIforecasting
    ↓
  29. 1995
    Hodographs and helicity (computing helicity)

    Informal article discussing wind profiles and wind shear, and the EHI (energy-helicity index) in layman terms relating to forecasting tornadoes.

    Davies, J.

    Storm Track, Feb. 1995

    helicityhodographsforecasting
    ↓
  30. 1994
    Some noteworthy aspects of the Hesston, Kansas, tornado family of 13 March 1990

    A cherished opportunity to work with well-known and highly-respected researchers. Did much to help establish a research career.

    Davies, J. M., C. A. Doswell III, D. W. Burgess, and J. F. Weaver

    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1007-1017

    tornadoesKansasHesston
    ↗
  31. 1994
    Supercells — nature's violent storm

    Discusses supercell storms in simple language. Features illustrations by iconic storm chaser David Hoadley.

    Vavrek, R. J., R. L. Holle, J. Allsopp, and J. M. Davies

    National Science Teachers Association

    supercells
    ↓
  32. 1993
    Comments concerning my experiences on 5/5/93 in southwest Kansas

    An account of an arrest while storm chasing in southwest Kansas. Submitted to Storm Track but never published. Foreshadows the chaser road crowding and law enforcement friction that has become an increasing issue in the years since.

    Davies, J.

    Submitted to Storm Track, 1993 — not published

    storm-chasing
    ↓
  33. 1993
    An examination of the relationship of 0-2 km AGL positive wind shear to potential buoyant energy in strong and violent tornado situations

    Johns, R. H., J. M. Davies, and P. W. Leftwich

    Preprints, 16th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alberta, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 593-598

    wind-shearCAPEtornadoes
    ↓
  34. 1993
    Hourly helicity, instability, and EHI in forecasting supercell tornadoes

    Good introductory paper about the energy-helicity index.

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 17th Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 107-111

    helicityEHIsupercellstornadoesforecasting
    ↓
  35. 1993
    Small tornadic supercells in the central plains

    Good introductory paper about tornadoes associated with cold-core mid-level lows.

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 17th Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 305-309

    cold-coresupercellstornadoes
    ↓
  36. 1993
    The Tampa area tornadoes of October 3, 1992: An examination using hourly rotational parameters

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 13th Conf. Wea. Analysis & Forecasting, Vienna, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 494-499

    tornadoesCAPEEHIforecasting
    ↓
  37. 1993
    Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes. Part 1. Wind shear and helicity

    Prized work with mentor Bob Johns at SPC/NSSFC. This material was also the basis for developing the energy-helicity index.

    Davies, J. M., and R. H. Johns

    The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards. Geophys. Monogr., No. 79, Amer. Geophys. Union, 573-582

    wind-shearhelicityEHItornadoes
    ↓
  38. 1993
    Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes. Part 2. Variations in the combinations of wind and instability parameters

    Johns, R. H., J. M. Davies, and P. W. Leftwich

    The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction, and Hazards. Geophys. Monogr., No. 79, Amer. Geophys. Union, 583-590

    wind-shearhelicitytornadoes
    ↗
  39. 1991
    The tornado outbreak of April 26

    Contributed the first chapter of this comprehensive book about the F5 Andover, Kansas tornado.

    Davies, J., and C. White

    In: Tornado: Terror and Survival — The Andover Tornado April 26, 1991. H. Inglish, editor. Counseling Center of Butler County, Andover, Kansas.

    tornadoesKansas
    ↓
  40. 1990
    Midget supercell spawns tornadoes

    First published non-technical article, showing photos of a small supercell associated with a cold-core low aloft. Among the first published photos showing a full view of a tornadic mini-supercell associated with a cold-core mid-level low pressure system.

    Davies, J.

    Weatherwise, October 1990, 260-261

    cold-coresupercellstornadoes
    ↓
  41. 1990
    Year of the Storms — the Destructive Kansas Weather of 1990

    Technical advisor and photo contributor for this book, which included an overview of the F5 Hesston tornado.

    Inglish, H., editor

    Hearth Publishing, Hillsboro, Kansas

    tornadoesKansas
    ↓
  42. 1989
    On the use of shear magnitudes and hodographs in forecasting

    Davies, J. M.

    Preprints, 12th Conf. Wea. Analysis & Forecasting, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 219-224

    wind-shearhodographsforecasting
    ↓